Fundamental analysis JPY for last week!

Thereupon the valid upturn in the first half of the week, the currency of Japan lost to the US Dollar and so got back to the minimums, whereat it resided in the end of June. The optimistic outburst at the stock markets afforded enough grounds for returning into the Yen as a foundering currency for the carry trade deals. That certainly determined its narrowing together with the US Dollar purchasing by the importers on the favorable terms.
The economic data, which were published last week, weren’t encouraging, because the machine building orders suddenly fell down for 9.1% against April, which occurred to be the worst possible dynamics since August 2008. The money supply aggregates showed some squeezing, the volumes of the bank crediting lessened, and finally, the values of coinciding and advancing indicators demonstrated slowdown, just like the economic observers’ index.
The trading balance surplus of “The Land of Rising Sun” also went ahead decreasing in May. Generally speaking, the macro parameters noted the unfavorable dynamics, while the state authorities go on speaking about the good opening. The economic data, which are going to be represented this week, aren’t likely to improve the general state of affairs. The services’ activity is predicted with dullness, and the households’ confidence lowering down in June.
Nothing new is expected from the Bank of Japan concerning the interest rate, which will remain unchangeable most likely. The today represented data have shown the continuation of the inflationary development as the wholesale price index demonstrated -0.4% m/m for June. To say it in a word, it seems to be too long before the recovery in Japan. However, the statistics isn’t among the factors of influence upon the Yen.
The results of the general elections in Japan will obviously be a checkpoint for the investors in the first day of the present weekly session, and in the second turn the level of inclination to risk, as usual. If presume, this factor may decrease i.e., the investors probably start seeking for a currency shelter again the Japanese currency has all chances to renew its strengthening.

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