Fundamental analysis GBP for last week!

The cross of GBP/USD was interesting thanks to the ranging trades last week. The result changed every day, though the general impressions favored the Sterling’s advance. However, the weekly totals stated the US Dollar gain as the Friday trades provided the profit for the American currency when the “cable” incurred massive sales-offs. The weekly ambiguity obviously turned into the diffidence. The prospects of the British economy don’t obviously encourage the market to expect the development of the positive economic tendencies in the “Isles” by reason of the governmental plans of expenditures’ cut. Moreover, the indicators start to demonstrate the declining tendencies. The British services’ activity slid down to the minimum since August 2009. The opinion polls stated high apprehensions of the new wave of recession in the British business. The British trading balance worsened, while the deficits grew up. The producers’ transfer prices showed downgrading in June in Great Britain. Despite all above mentioned, the forecasts of various researching institutions encourage the expectations of further raise. For example, the British Institute of NIESR predicts the national economic increase for 0.7% in the 3rd quarter. Furthermore, the British Chamber of Commerce foresees positive perspectives basing upon the good orders’ balance for the former quarter. The British economic news is going to be rich for essential data this week. These publications are starting even today already. The first of all should be the data on GDP of the 1st quarter, which publicizing was postponed earlier. The forecast predicts the maintenance of the advance values of 0.3% q/q and -0.2% y/y.
Also, the quarter information about the payment balance is to be represented with the rapid increase of the deficit from -1.7 Billion to -4.5 Billion of pound probably. Of course, it can’t be a good reason for the positive attitude to the British currency by any means. Later on, the statistics will show the June tempos of the consumer prices’ increase, which are presumed slowing down the 2nd month running together with the home prices, which indexes should state the sagging down as well in accordance with the RICS data.
Finally, the data on the unemployment in the “Isles” are also planned to be published. This indicator is expected to show the shortage of the jobless receiving the redundant payment. Reasoning from the forecasts, it’s reasonable to presume the lack of support for the Sterling together with high probability of its return to suppression most likely.

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